all cases

HHG-011

uncertainEscalated

card not present new device

Case HHG-011 resulted in an uncertain verdict with a fraud probability of 0.33, as the disputed $131.30 charge on card C11923-K2 matched the customer's established recurring subscription pattern, which conflicts with the new device marker and structural similarities to prior fraud cases. The step-up authentication request expired unanswered, which raised the fraud probability from 0.29 to 0.33 and triggered the final recommended actions. Consequently, the case was handled via CREATE_CASE (auto, R7), VERIFY_WITH_CUSTOMER (auto, R7), WARN_CUSTOMER (auto, R7), and ESCALATE_TO_ANALYST (auto, R8). These actions were chosen because Fraud Policy R7 forbids immediate card blocking when a disputed charge matches a customer's recurring pattern, while Policy R8 mandates escalation when the investigation cannot reach a confident verdict.

exposure
$1,062.66
affected txns
34
connected cards
0
prior cases cited
5
uncertain
fraud probability
0.150.300.700.85

stop_reason — Evidence request settled the question: probability reached 0.33 (uncertain); further steps are unlikely to change the decision.

recommendation historyunchanged

Initial recommendation

before · on the evidence gathered so far
  1. CREATE_CASEAutoR7
  2. VERIFY_WITH_CUSTOMERAutoR7
  3. WARN_CUSTOMERAutoR7
  4. ESCALATE_TO_ANALYSTAutoR8

Evidence requested

ask · 1 request
  • step up authafter step 3

    Step-up authentication request expired unanswered within the window.

Final recommendation

after · no revision required
  1. CREATE_CASEAutoR7
  2. VERIFY_WITH_CUSTOMERAutoR7
  3. WARN_CUSTOMERAutoR7
  4. ESCALATE_TO_ANALYSTAutoR8

The assumed step up auth response (Step-up authentication request expired unanswered within the window.) raised fraud probability from 0.29 to 0.33, changing the recommended actions.

entity neighbourhood1 cards · 0 devices
HHG-011-CARD
shared devicecard under investigationflaggedconnected card
policy trace · R1–R102 of 10 predicates fired

Every rule below is a deterministic predicate evaluated against this case’s evidence — not a model’s assertion of an outcome. The engine checks all ten; most do not apply here, and that is shown deliberately.

R1
did not fire
Single signal only, fraud probability below 0.70 — must precede any block.
R2
did not fire
Customer was asked to validate and denied the charge.
R3
did not fire
Customer confirmed the charge as their own.
R4
did not fire
No customer reply within 24 hours.
R5
did not fire
3+ sub-$5 online authorizations within an hour on one card, then a larger purchase.
R6
did not fire
Device profile, billing region, or recipient email shared across multiple cards in one window.
R7
fired — forbid
Disputed charge matches the customer's own recurring pattern — merchant, amount, monthly.
Forbids: BLOCK_CARD, DECLINE_TRANSACTION — blocking is withheld even though the case was flagged.
CREATE_CASE·autoVERIFY_WITH_CUSTOMER·autoWARN_CUSTOMER·auto
R8
fired
Verdict uncertain with exposure over $500, or evidence conflicts.
ESCALATE_TO_ANALYST·auto
R9
did not fire
Fits none of the five documented patterns, and abuse is coordinated or repeated across customers.
R10
did not fire
BLOCK_ALL_CARDS was proposed — requires 2+ cards confirmed fraud or confirmed compromised credentials, else downgrades to a single-card BLOCK_CARD.
precedent retrieval · graphRAG5 cases retrieved

The closed-case history runs 4,665 confirmed fraud to 900 cleared — a single merged ranking over that history returns almost nothing but incriminating cases and pushes every verdict toward blocking. Retrieval runs as two separate pools, confirming and exonerating, so that imbalance cannot silently decide the case.

Confirming precedent(3)

  • CC-3905shared device
  • CC-0583
  • CC-0533

Exonerating precedent(2)

  • CC-0696
  • CC-4743shared device

Drawn from 5,565 closed investigations.

evidence ledger · 14 itemsprovenance & signals
  • Cardholder disputes the charge: Customer C11923 message: 'I never made this $131.30 purchase. Please check my card.' Refers to 3583368.

    Customer
    trigger:customer_report(HHG-011)T3583368
  • 34 online transaction(s) on card C11923-K2 -- T3576228 ($11.22), T3576269 ($21.98), T3576340 ($33.86), T3576468 ($22.30), T3576872 ($22.21), T3577245 ($33.79), T3577287 ($20.51), T3577440 ($31.30), T3577647 ($35.74), T3578347 ($40.13), T3578817 ($25.73), T3579597 ($26.19), T3580380 ($25.67), T3580403 ($25.76), T3580417 ($25.68), T3580478 ($23.52), T3580544 ($22.07), T3580712 ($44.08), T3580765 ($40.12), T3580776 ($25.08), T3580815 ($15.21), T3580907 ($16.17), T3581048 ($37.08), T3582338 ($36.67), T3582375 ($32.65), T3582413 ($16.63), T3582738 ($56.59), T3582868 ($57.27), T3583101 ($40.56), T3583229 ($16.78), T3583368 ($131.30), T3583406 ($19.55), T3583411 ($6.33), T3583435 ($22.93) -- came from a device first marked 'New' for this account (id_15=New)

    Graph
    query:card_window(card_id=C11923-K2)T3576228T3576269T3576340T3576468T3576872T3577245T3577287T3577440T3577647T3578347T3578817T3579597T3580380T3580403T3580417T3580478T3580544T3580712T3580765T3580776T3580815T3580907T3581048T3582338T3582375T3582413T3582738T3582868T3583101T3583229T3583368T3583406T3583411T3583435
  • Structural match (shared device/region/card) with confirmed-fraud closed case CC-3905 (pattern: card_not_present_new_device)

    Graph
    query:prior_cases_for_entities(case=CC-3905)CC-3905
  • Precedent (confirming): CC-3905 (confirmed fraud, $1,397.53 exposure): shares 2 entities (card/device/region) with this alert

    Graph
    query:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-3905)CC-3905
  • Precedent (confirming): CC-0583 (confirmed fraud, $31.26 exposure): semantically similar analyst notes (cosine distance 0.29), no direct structural overlap

    Graph
    query:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-0583)CC-0583
  • Precedent (confirming): CC-0533 (confirmed fraud, $79.58 exposure): semantically similar analyst notes (cosine distance 0.30), no direct structural overlap

    Graph
    query:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-0533)CC-0533
  • Precedent (disconfirming): CC-0696 (cleared as legitimate): semantically similar analyst notes (cosine distance 0.32), no direct structural overlap

    Graph
    query:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-0696)CC-0696
  • Precedent (disconfirming): CC-4743 (cleared as legitimate): shares 1 entity (card/device/region) with this alert

    Graph
    query:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-4743)CC-4743
  • Flagged charge matches this customer's own recurring merchant/amount pattern (monthly)

    Graph
    query:customer_baseline(customer_id=C11923)T3583368
  • Fraud Policy R7: Forbids immediate card block when disputed charge matches customer's established recurring subscription.

    Document
    policy:R7R7
  • Agent elected to expand the investigation to the shared-device neighbourhood. Reasoning: YES The presence of a new device marker and a closed case match suggests the device may be linked to other compromised accounts, warranting a check for connected cards.

    Graph
    llm_decision:expand_device_neighbourhood(case=HHG-011)C11923-K2
  • Agent proposed device_neighbors(device_id=device_id_15), refused: that looks like a raw dataset column name, not a real entity id -- running it would waste a query rather than gather evidence. Full params: {'device_id': 'device_id_15', 'anchor': '2016-12-29 06:27:44', 'hours': 72}

    Graph
    llm_plan:rejected(column_as_id, depth=1)
  • card_window returned 107 connected entities at depth 2. Reasoning: The goal is to identify the specific device ID associated with the 'New' marker for card C11923-K2. The identifier 'device_id_15' is not in the known list of real identifiers, so I cannot use it directly in a device_neighbors query. The card_window query will retrieve recent transactions for the card, which should reveal the device IDs used, allowing me to identify the specific device associated with the 'New' marker before proceeding to check for shared usage.

    Graph
    query:card_window(card_id=C11923-K2, anchor=2016-12-29 06:27:44, hours=72)35845163578394357940035824133584155358260235823273579407357840535834173578107357834735802193578451358273835808213578483358440135762693584693358076535795973583368358023235831013584985358262435809923584859358334835763293580417357957635809073578997357881735821423577595358343535802023582338358217535801373578475358054435803483583670357646835784963583644358040335834063584706358093335761983578491357744035762283582178358400335772003578050358267135821073577245358341135839143578471357677135804783578340357827735832293583415358349435853453584962358396835807123582082358038035781483576340357764735838663581345358081535785063584153357728735810483582897358446035768723576738358506435828683583199358095135804273578995357771535784863583140358237535807763585055
  • Confidence check on gathered evidence: high -- The evidence presents a clear conflict between the customer's denial and the transaction's alignment with their established baseline. The disputed charge matches the customer's recurring merchant/amount pattern, which is a strong indicator of legitimacy. Furthermore, Policy R7 explicitly forbids immediate card blocking in such scenarios. While there are structural matches to prior fraud cases and a 'New' device marker, the specific nature of the charge as a known recurring subscription outweighs these generic risk signals for the purpose of the policy engine's decision. The investigation has reached its depth limit, and the available signals are sufficient for the policy engine to apply R7 and determine the appropriate action.

    Graph
    llm_decision:confidence_gate(case=HHG-011, depth=3)
prior cases · memory5 cited

Confirming precedent

  • CC-3905Supports fraud
  • CC-0583Supports fraud
  • CC-0533Supports fraud

Disconfirming precedent

  • CC-0696Exonerates
  • CC-4743Exonerates
Stop reasonEvidence request settled the question: probability reached 0.33 (uncertain); further steps are unlikely to change the decision.
Tool calls0
Tokens0
Latency0.0s