HHG-011
uncertainEscalatedcard not present new device
Case HHG-011 resulted in an uncertain verdict with a fraud probability of 0.33, as the disputed $131.30 charge on card C11923-K2 matched the customer's established recurring subscription pattern, which conflicts with the new device marker and structural similarities to prior fraud cases. The step-up authentication request expired unanswered, which raised the fraud probability from 0.29 to 0.33 and triggered the final recommended actions. Consequently, the case was handled via CREATE_CASE (auto, R7), VERIFY_WITH_CUSTOMER (auto, R7), WARN_CUSTOMER (auto, R7), and ESCALATE_TO_ANALYST (auto, R8). These actions were chosen because Fraud Policy R7 forbids immediate card blocking when a disputed charge matches a customer's recurring pattern, while Policy R8 mandates escalation when the investigation cannot reach a confident verdict.
- exposure
- $1,062.66
- affected txns
- 34
- connected cards
- 0
- prior cases cited
- 5
stop_reason — Evidence request settled the question: probability reached 0.33 (uncertain); further steps are unlikely to change the decision.
Initial recommendation
before · on the evidence gathered so far- CREATE_CASEAutoR7
- VERIFY_WITH_CUSTOMERAutoR7
- WARN_CUSTOMERAutoR7
- ESCALATE_TO_ANALYSTAutoR8
Evidence requested
ask · 1 request- step up authafter step 3
Step-up authentication request expired unanswered within the window.
Final recommendation
after · no revision required- CREATE_CASEAutoR7
- VERIFY_WITH_CUSTOMERAutoR7
- WARN_CUSTOMERAutoR7
- ESCALATE_TO_ANALYSTAutoR8
The assumed step up auth response (Step-up authentication request expired unanswered within the window.) raised fraud probability from 0.29 to 0.33, changing the recommended actions.
Every rule below is a deterministic predicate evaluated against this case’s evidence — not a model’s assertion of an outcome. The engine checks all ten; most do not apply here, and that is shown deliberately.
- R1 did not fire
- Single signal only, fraud probability below 0.70 — must precede any block.
- R2 did not fire
- Customer was asked to validate and denied the charge.
- R3 did not fire
- Customer confirmed the charge as their own.
- R4 did not fire
- No customer reply within 24 hours.
- R5 did not fire
- 3+ sub-$5 online authorizations within an hour on one card, then a larger purchase.
- R6 did not fire
- Device profile, billing region, or recipient email shared across multiple cards in one window.
- R7 fired — forbid
- Disputed charge matches the customer's own recurring pattern — merchant, amount, monthly.
- Forbids: BLOCK_CARD, DECLINE_TRANSACTION — blocking is withheld even though the case was flagged.
- CREATE_CASE·autoVERIFY_WITH_CUSTOMER·autoWARN_CUSTOMER·auto
- R8 fired
- Verdict uncertain with exposure over $500, or evidence conflicts.
- ESCALATE_TO_ANALYST·auto
- R9 did not fire
- Fits none of the five documented patterns, and abuse is coordinated or repeated across customers.
- R10 did not fire
- BLOCK_ALL_CARDS was proposed — requires 2+ cards confirmed fraud or confirmed compromised credentials, else downgrades to a single-card BLOCK_CARD.
The closed-case history runs 4,665 confirmed fraud to 900 cleared — a single merged ranking over that history returns almost nothing but incriminating cases and pushes every verdict toward blocking. Retrieval runs as two separate pools, confirming and exonerating, so that imbalance cannot silently decide the case.
Confirming precedent(3)
- CC-3905shared device
- CC-0583
- CC-0533
Exonerating precedent(2)
- CC-0696
- CC-4743shared device
Cardholder disputes the charge: Customer C11923 message: 'I never made this $131.30 purchase. Please check my card.' Refers to 3583368.
Customertrigger:customer_report(HHG-011)T358336834 online transaction(s) on card C11923-K2 -- T3576228 ($11.22), T3576269 ($21.98), T3576340 ($33.86), T3576468 ($22.30), T3576872 ($22.21), T3577245 ($33.79), T3577287 ($20.51), T3577440 ($31.30), T3577647 ($35.74), T3578347 ($40.13), T3578817 ($25.73), T3579597 ($26.19), T3580380 ($25.67), T3580403 ($25.76), T3580417 ($25.68), T3580478 ($23.52), T3580544 ($22.07), T3580712 ($44.08), T3580765 ($40.12), T3580776 ($25.08), T3580815 ($15.21), T3580907 ($16.17), T3581048 ($37.08), T3582338 ($36.67), T3582375 ($32.65), T3582413 ($16.63), T3582738 ($56.59), T3582868 ($57.27), T3583101 ($40.56), T3583229 ($16.78), T3583368 ($131.30), T3583406 ($19.55), T3583411 ($6.33), T3583435 ($22.93) -- came from a device first marked 'New' for this account (id_15=New)
Graphquery:card_window(card_id=C11923-K2)T3576228T3576269T3576340T3576468T3576872T3577245T3577287T3577440T3577647T3578347T3578817T3579597T3580380T3580403T3580417T3580478T3580544T3580712T3580765T3580776T3580815T3580907T3581048T3582338T3582375T3582413T3582738T3582868T3583101T3583229T3583368T3583406T3583411T3583435Structural match (shared device/region/card) with confirmed-fraud closed case CC-3905 (pattern: card_not_present_new_device)
Graphquery:prior_cases_for_entities(case=CC-3905)CC-3905Precedent (confirming): CC-3905 (confirmed fraud, $1,397.53 exposure): shares 2 entities (card/device/region) with this alert
Graphquery:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-3905)CC-3905Precedent (confirming): CC-0583 (confirmed fraud, $31.26 exposure): semantically similar analyst notes (cosine distance 0.29), no direct structural overlap
Graphquery:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-0583)CC-0583Precedent (confirming): CC-0533 (confirmed fraud, $79.58 exposure): semantically similar analyst notes (cosine distance 0.30), no direct structural overlap
Graphquery:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-0533)CC-0533Precedent (disconfirming): CC-0696 (cleared as legitimate): semantically similar analyst notes (cosine distance 0.32), no direct structural overlap
Graphquery:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-0696)CC-0696Precedent (disconfirming): CC-4743 (cleared as legitimate): shares 1 entity (card/device/region) with this alert
Graphquery:prior_case_candidates(case=CC-4743)CC-4743Flagged charge matches this customer's own recurring merchant/amount pattern (monthly)
Graphquery:customer_baseline(customer_id=C11923)T3583368Fraud Policy R7: Forbids immediate card block when disputed charge matches customer's established recurring subscription.
Documentpolicy:R7R7Agent elected to expand the investigation to the shared-device neighbourhood. Reasoning: YES The presence of a new device marker and a closed case match suggests the device may be linked to other compromised accounts, warranting a check for connected cards.
Graphllm_decision:expand_device_neighbourhood(case=HHG-011)C11923-K2Agent proposed device_neighbors(device_id=device_id_15), refused: that looks like a raw dataset column name, not a real entity id -- running it would waste a query rather than gather evidence. Full params: {'device_id': 'device_id_15', 'anchor': '2016-12-29 06:27:44', 'hours': 72}
Graphllm_plan:rejected(column_as_id, depth=1)card_window returned 107 connected entities at depth 2. Reasoning: The goal is to identify the specific device ID associated with the 'New' marker for card C11923-K2. The identifier 'device_id_15' is not in the known list of real identifiers, so I cannot use it directly in a device_neighbors query. The card_window query will retrieve recent transactions for the card, which should reveal the device IDs used, allowing me to identify the specific device associated with the 'New' marker before proceeding to check for shared usage.
Graphquery:card_window(card_id=C11923-K2, anchor=2016-12-29 06:27:44, hours=72)35845163578394357940035824133584155358260235823273579407357840535834173578107357834735802193578451358273835808213578483358440135762693584693358076535795973583368358023235831013584985358262435809923584859358334835763293580417357957635809073578997357881735821423577595358343535802023582338358217535801373578475358054435803483583670357646835784963583644358040335834063584706358093335761983578491357744035762283582178358400335772003578050358267135821073577245358341135839143578471357677135804783578340357827735832293583415358349435853453584962358396835807123582082358038035781483576340357764735838663581345358081535785063584153357728735810483582897358446035768723576738358506435828683583199358095135804273578995357771535784863583140358237535807763585055Confidence check on gathered evidence: high -- The evidence presents a clear conflict between the customer's denial and the transaction's alignment with their established baseline. The disputed charge matches the customer's recurring merchant/amount pattern, which is a strong indicator of legitimacy. Furthermore, Policy R7 explicitly forbids immediate card blocking in such scenarios. While there are structural matches to prior fraud cases and a 'New' device marker, the specific nature of the charge as a known recurring subscription outweighs these generic risk signals for the purpose of the policy engine's decision. The investigation has reached its depth limit, and the available signals are sufficient for the policy engine to apply R7 and determine the appropriate action.
Graphllm_decision:confidence_gate(case=HHG-011, depth=3)
Confirming precedent
- CC-3905Supports fraud
- CC-0583Supports fraud
- CC-0533Supports fraud
Disconfirming precedent
- CC-0696Exonerates
- CC-4743Exonerates